Also of interest, for those can get themselves to care about this most mundane (yet somehow fascinating) of topics, is the market at InTrade for future tax rates. Perhaps the most interesting finding here is that the prediction for Highest Marginal Single-Filer Fed Income Tax Rate to be greater than 38% dramatically rises from 2010 to 2011. This is the expiration of the Bush tax cuts, and the traders’ beliefs that these cuts will not be extended at their current levels.
Mint, on the other hand, provides this rather fascinating infographic about where the money comes from to fund our federal government. This breaks down the share of the tax burden by income level.
New research suggests that when a home’s value falls below 75 percent of the amount owed on the mortgage, the owner starts to think hard about walking away, even if he or she has the money to keep paying.
In a situation without precedent in the modern era, millions of Americans are in this bleak position …
… The number of Americans who owed more than their homes were worth was virtually nil when the real estate collapse began in mid-2006, but by the third quarter of 2009, an estimated 4.5 million homeowners had reached the critical threshold, with their home’s value dropping below 75 percent of the mortgage balance …
… With figures released last week showing that the real estate market was stalling again, their numbers are now projected to climb to a peak of 5.1 million by June — about 10 percent of all Americans with mortgages.
PIMCO “looked closely at the way the housing market actually functioned at the microlevel. Their research included participating in “ride alongs” with local real estate and mortgage agents. Their findings … spoke clearly to the excesses taking place.
In and of itself perhaps not too astounding, but it’s implications are a bit astonishing.
1. During the housing bubble many investors were not doing the leg work to understand the very thing they were investing in.
2. And, (and perhaps more important from my perspective) how important doing the basic, almost ethnographic, research was to informing how PIMCO invested.
What can design do to fight corruption? It can provide a tool for people who want to stand up to it. Handing this zero rupee note to corrupt officials in India had this effect:
One official in Tamil Nadu was so stunned to receive the note that he handed back all the bribes he had solicited for providing electricity to a village. Another stood up, offered tea to the old lady from whom he was trying to extort money and approved a loan so her granddaughter could go to college.
If anything one senses the return of an old problem that has been hinted at before (remember the “jobless recovery” for our last recession in 2001 that everyone talked about?), but is now assuredly back.
The main question is: what does that mean for the American economy? Here’s a clue.
Addendum: I remember reading yesterday (but I don’t remember where) that younger people are more optimistic about their job prospects than older people. One could surmise that if technology is part of the reason that people are getting laid off, and staying laid off, then younger people who tend to have more skills relating to technology (or at least be less afraid of it) will be less worried since they should have the skills to compete in this “new world.” Not so those troglodytes we call our parents.
My apologies to any readers out there who have been wondering where I’ve been for the past couple months. Call it a new job and an apartment renovation. Some things demand immediate attention.
Regardless, though, I hope you stick with me. There never seems to be a shortage of things to say regarding markets, design, and usability.
In the process of designing for traders there is one thing that UX people learn relatively quickly: the mouse is slow. Traders, especially professional ones, rely on keyboard shortcuts to rapidly move around an application and do the thing they’re being paid to do: trade (and hopefully make a profit). The mouse in this environment is not, shall we say, the enemy, but the less you force the trader to use the mouse the better.
Of course consumer websites and applications are somewhat different. Having mouse actions alone for some types of functionality is not so bad. Generally there are not so many clicks as to be onerous. But there is a lesson for us all in the applications designed for traders: too much use of the mouse may not always be a good thing.
I had this (very small) insight when using a new site called Kapitall. It is an interesting idea: Investing made simple. But since when did simple mean almost complete reliance on the mouse? It appears as if almost nothing can be done on Kapitall without using the mouse. Getting a quote, making a watch list, anything. It doesn’t help that the desktop is transformed into a landscape which one has to maneuver (and scroll) through to find different groups of stock.
Imagine trying to manage 100 companies this way. Or even 25.
Don’t get me wrong. In many ways the idea is fascinating: using space and visible objects as a way to organize your investing related ideas, companies, etc. But perhaps the message here is: don’t make me work too hard to do what you want me to do. And, if I’m doing a lot of mouse action, I’m working too hard. (Especially if I’m an older investor and have carpel tunnel syndrome. Not necessarily unusual.)
Now, if only I had a quarter for everyone who tried to make investing simple.
The prediction markets for the Nobel Prize in Economics were not very predictive. The markets at InTrade were only open from Oct 9th to today, and do not appear to have generated a lot of volume … or any for that matter.
In addition, the winners were not even on the list of contracts you could have purchased. To win, you would have had to purchase contracts in “Other.”
What did Ostrom and Williamson study? Certainly not efficient markets!
In truth, given the biases (perhaps exposed in the Obama peace prize) it would have been a stretch for them to award anyone who studied (much less championed) free markets.
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences cited Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance,” saying her work had demonstrated how common property can be successfully managed by groups using it.
Williamson, the academy said, developed a theory where business firms serve as structures for conflict resolution.
Certainly not the type of stuff that makes Wall Streeters salivate onto their ties.
UsableMarkets explores and discusses all sorts of online markets, trading applications, information design, and economic topics. We also publish the occasional interview with UX practitioners and industry experts.
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