Item #2 from the 2007 NY Prediction Market Conference
During the conference, while Karim Tahawi was speaking, it occurred to me that sometimes it seems the prediction market industry is desperate to lose the market in Prediction Markets.
To begin with, it seems a well known refrain in the prediction market industry that trading is just too complicated for the average person. All the industry players have been looking for ways to simplify the interface and the trading mechanisms involved. And all this effort and thinking is beginning to bear fruit.
Some examples:
Making predicting easier is certainly a noble goal, and some of the interfaces – particularly ZiiTrends – are doing some fascinating things.
But I do admit to feeling a sense of nostalgia for the old, no-consideration-for-those-of-you-who-don’t-know-how-to-trade prediction markets, such as the Iowa Electronic Market. The IEM, while perfectly unusable, is not without its charm.
But Prediction Markets want popularity, and if ease-of-use is what it takes, then ease-of-use is what it’s going to get.
Intrade explains! it for you
As always, thanks for listening.
~alex
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Good to Go Pile . . . « Trading for the Masses // Oct 10, 2007 at 3:57 pm
[...] Losing in Prediction markets [...]
Am I correct in assuming that prediction markets become more accurate the more users there are? If so, then they must become easier to use if only to improve their accuracy.
Or, maybe I’m missing something, and prediction markets are not intended to be accurate but just for fun (and possibly for profit) for those in the know.
Side note: perhaps the term “prediction market” is too complex. I had no idea what it meant without someone (you!) explaining it to me.
UsableMarkets Reports from the NYC Prediction Market Conference (Yes, a little, er, a lot, late) | Midas Oracle .ORG // Oct 12, 2007 at 8:41 am
[...] Losing the Market in Prediction Markets talks about the recognition that the desire for simpler trading interfaces in the prediction market [...]