UsableMarkets

The AAII has a survey of retail investor sentiment. The S&P has an index. I have a need to make charts. Lets see what happens.

What is the relationship, if any, between AAII Investor Sentiment* and the performance of the S&P 500? (click to enlarge)

* The American Association of Individual Investors has a weekly investor sentiment survey where respondents are asked to indicate how they feel about the market: bullish, bearish, or neutral. I’m not sure if there’s any sample bias here, but there certainly could be.

Off the cuff analysis: It appears from this chart that retail investor sentiment is very reactive, and not predictive of any swings in the market. Keep in mind this is an off-the-cuff analysis.

~alex