Navigate to the latest prediction market, a “health market” this time, from the Iowa Electronic Market, and one see this:
Ouch! Oh, wait. The text lamely explains the graphic. “Each marker represents a location containing current or former health market participants.”
Phew. Well, I’m happy to hear that. But now, what the hell can I do here? What contracts can be traded?
Of that, not a word.
~alex
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I can see making an argument against the informativeness or general usefulness of the world graphic, but in all fairness there are links *directly above* that graphic that state “Current Markets” and “Practice Trading.” Selecting a portion of a website to critique in isolation, especially when you deliberately omit the portions that directly address your criticisms, seems a bit dishonest.
Again, making the argument that the markets currently available on a website should get top billing on the main page is a solid one, but creating a straw man out of the world animation doesn’t make for a very strong argument.
Fair enough, but I think you’re over-estimating the patience of users. You want people to participate, but if they don’t understand what they’re getting themselves into, they won’t even take the time to click on the links Current Markets and Practice Trading.
You might do a quick usability test to see how effective the home page is. Take 6 undergraduates who have never heard of the the IEM or its health markets. Show them the home page (which they’ll presumably be seeing for the first time) and ask them: “what do you think you can do here?”
If they all say, “trade in a health related prediction markets to make predictions about various health issues,” (without any coaching) I’ll eat my hat (or publish a retraction).
~alex