I only ask because this chart which is supposed to outline how the European teams started the World Cup poorly, but have now come on in the end, seems to me a bit gratuitous.

While pretty, the chart seems more like a bunch of collected statistics, thrown together, which doesn’t really do much to support the main assertion. Using the small multiples to chart each game in the tournament can be endlessly distracting, but where does it lead us?

To avoid being just negative, though, I should point out that the NYTimes live graphical updates during the World Cup games has been quite powerful. One does get an excellent sense of how a game is progressing (especially if one does not have the benefit of a video feed or TV), in a very small amount of space.

~alex

Here we see the card key reader and the button side by side. For whatever reason (perhaps Don Norman, or the Devil, knows) I always press the button, although to enter the door I need my card key. The button refers to another door, which I need to press to exit.

One word. Arrrrrggggghhhh!!!!!!!

~alex

As Dr. Pennock describes on his blog post introducing Predicalot:

Predictalot is a true combinatorial prediction market of the sort academics like us and Robin Hanson have been dreaming about since early in the decade. …

… In the tournament, after the play-in game, the 64 top college basketball teams play 63 games in a single elimination tournament. So there are 2 the the power 63 or 9.2 quintillion total possible outcomes, or ways the entire tournament can unfold. Predictalot implicitly keeps track of the odds for them all. To put this in perspective, it’s estimated that there are about 10 quintillion individual insects on Earth. Of course, for all practical purposes, we can’t store 9.2 quintillion numbers, even with today’s computers. Instead, we compute the odds for any outcome on the fly by scanning through the predictions placed so far.

The downer is that there are a limited number to the types of prediction one can make at the moment. For example, right now one can’t make a prediction about who will win the tournament. Prediction types so far seem limited to what seed, or range of seeds, will win the maddness, as well as number of upsets, but if you want to pick Syracuse to win it all, tough luck. However, the good doctor assures us these prediction types will be active soon.

Regardless, congrats to David and Yahoo for finally following up on TechBuzz. I think they were just waiting for an innovative idea to really take hold of them (and perhaps the resources to actually build it ;-)

~alex

But that has been corrected thanks to a new paper about online dating (Frost, Jeana H., Zoe Chance, Michael I. Norton, and Dan Ariely. People Are Experience Goods: Improving Online Dating with Virtual Dates. Journal of Interactive Marketing 22, no. 1 (winter 2008): 51-62.). Here’s the abstract (emphasis mine):

We suggest that online dating frequently fails to meet user expectations because people, unlike many commodities available for purchase online, are experience goods: Daters wish to screen potential romantic partners by experiential attributes (such as sense of humor or rapport), but online dating Web sites force them to screen by searchable attributes (such as income or religion). We demonstrate that people spend too much time searching for options online for too little payoff in offline dates (Study 1), in part because users desire information about experiential attributes, but online dating Web sites contain primarily searchable attributes (Study 2). Finally, we introduce and beta test the Virtual Date, offering potential dating partners the opportunity to acquire experiential information by exploring a virtual environment in interactions analogous to real first dates (such as going to a museum), an online intervention that led to greater liking after offline meetings (Study 3).

Hat tip to Al Roth, who is not only an esteemed academic, but a pretty good blogger, too.

~alex

Ouch! Oh, wait. The text lamely explains the graphic. “Each marker represents a location containing current or former health market participants.”

Phew. Well, I’m happy to hear that. But now, what the hell can I do here? What contracts can be traded?

Of that, not a word.

~alex

Title: Corporate Blew

(Thanks andreas.frank1976)

“Prices just fell off a cliff,” says Dina Astell of the Racehorse Owners Association. “Trainers who used to get credit from their banks stopped getting credit.”

Now all eyes are on the sale of two year olds, hosted by Tattersalls, to be held tomorrow and Wednesday. It uses the old English coinage of guineas to price its sales.

Last year’s record sale raised 11.88m guineas or just under £12.5m from the auction of 116 racehorses. But this year prices are expected to fall following the onset of the worldwide recession and the collapse of value in other asset classes.

Paul Roy, chairman of the British Horseracing Authority and a former Merrill Lynch banker, says Tattersalls is unlikely to repeat last year’s successes. “Generally you have got to think that prices are going to be down based on the prices in October,” he said.

“People haven’t stopped talking about recession. The trend we have seen oversees is definitely down. Some of the economic issues haven’t gone away. There is less money around and less buyers.”

However, in spite of the downturn the success or failure of the sale could rest on Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid al-Maktoum, the ruler of Dubai, and his Godolphin stable, which is based near Newmarket.

Ed Prosser, who covers bloodstock sales for the Racing Post newspaper, says: “Whatever the Maktoums decide to do is going to be absolutely crucial in determining how the breeze-up sale at Tattersalls is going to go. They will have a huge bearing on how the other major sales perform this year because nobody else is spending their volume of money at the top level.”

As the Sheikh goes, so goes the market for race horses

~alex

Pick yourself up a couple extra carats … I mean carrots

(Thanks deviantART)

Perhaps the headline will be true — again — by the end of the day.

~alex

My apologies, dear readers, for the infrequent postings of late, but I’ve been a bit reoccupied with other matters. Hopefully I’ll be able to post more starting in April.

~alex