It really didn’t seem that long ago that prediction markets were world beaters. Prediction market supporters knew they had the best predictive mechanism around, and they were not shy of saying it. They could predict presidential elections, Oscars, and average yearly rainfall in NYC, among other things. Prediction markets were even floated as a way [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Prediction Markets'
Betting real money on movie success (or failure) is one step closer
June 16th, 2010 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
From the FT we learn that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has given the go ahead to exchanges (such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange and The Trend Exchange) where derivatives based on movie box office receipts can be traded. An editorial from the FT backs up the CFTC’s decision, arguing this should enable the film [...]
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Bad news for HSX
April 19th, 2010 · 1 Comment · Prediction Markets
HSX seemed to be on the verge of bringing a real money market to box office receipts, but alas, Congress looks ready to derail them. We knew some noise was being made in that direction, but the ban is now one step closer to reality. Sorry guys, some people are just more powerful than you. [...]
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Lights! Camera! Ac- ……?
April 8th, 2010 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
Play money wasn’t a problem, but it appears real money is. The soon to be launched real money markets for movie futures is getting some opposition from Hollywood (coverage in the FT and NYT), which never before seemed to mind the existence of HSX, a play money prediction market for movie contracts. Needless to say [...]
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Movie futures
March 11th, 2010 · No Comments · Financial Markets, Prediction Markets
From the FT we learn that there will be not one, but two new movie exchanges where speculators and hedgers can bet on the profitability of movies: the Cantor Fitzgerald offering, HSX (launching sometime in late April, we assume), and something call the Trend Exchange, (coming out later this month). Why these exchanges? From the [...]
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“… a true combinatorial prediction market …”
March 5th, 2010 · 4 Comments · Fun, Prediction Markets
Yahoo scientist David Pennock proudly presents his new baby, Predictalot. Despite the ridiculousness of the name (lets hope they don’t get a lot of Spamalot), it is quite different than any other prediction market I’ve seen out there. As Dr. Pennock describes on his blog post introducing Predicalot: Predictalot is a true combinatorial prediction market [...]
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Taxing infographics
February 5th, 2010 · 1 Comment · Economics, Information Design, Prediction Markets
Visualizing Economics has been on something of a binge lately on tax related infographics. There is, of course, interesting stuff to be seen here (but perhaps not terribly new), about how the wealthiest Americans are paying out less of their income in taxes now than in years past. Also of interest, for those can get [...]
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Interview with Alex Costakis of HSX
July 14th, 2009 · 3 Comments · Interviews, Prediction Markets
For those that follow prediction markets, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) is instantly recognized as one of the oldest and most popular on the internet. But despite their past success they have not stood still. In this interview with Alex Costakis, Managing Director of Hollywood Stock Exchange, we discuss the recent redesign, the challenges of [...]
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Information completeness is the key to efficient (prediction) markets
June 9th, 2009 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
From the Toronto Prediction Market Blog we have this nice post — The Forgotten Principle Behind Prediction Markets — which talks about the concept of information completeness being key to a successful prediction market Each of Surowiecki’s prediction market conditions (diversity, independence and decentralization) relates to this overarching principle and serve to improve the pool [...]
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Quirky … an ideas market with real money
June 4th, 2009 · No Comments · Prediction Markets, Product Development
Fast Company recently reviewed a company called Quirky (Quirky: A Crowd-Sourced Way to Produce Your Designs). Quirky is not unlike some of the idea markets I’ve spoken about previously on UM. The difference this time is that Quirky has presumably figured out a way to help market participants actually earn real money. If you suggest [...]
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