From the FT we learn that there will be not one, but two new movie exchanges where speculators and hedgers can bet on the profitability of movies: the Cantor Fitzgerald offering, HSX (launching sometime in late April, we assume), and something call the Trend Exchange, (coming out later this month).
Why these exchanges? From the [...]
Entries Tagged as 'Prediction Markets'
Movie futures
March 11th, 2010 · No Comments · Financial Markets, Prediction Markets
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“… a true combinatorial prediction market …”
March 5th, 2010 · 1 Comment · Fun, Prediction Markets
Yahoo scientist David Pennock proudly presents his new baby, Predictalot. Despite the ridiculousness of the name (lets hope they don’t get a lot of Spamalot), it is quite different than any other prediction market I’ve seen out there.
As Dr. Pennock describes on his blog post introducing Predicalot:
Predictalot is a true combinatorial prediction [...]
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Taxing infographics
February 5th, 2010 · 1 Comment · Economics, Information Design, Prediction Markets
Visualizing Economics has been on something of a binge lately on tax related infographics. There is, of course, interesting stuff to be seen here (but perhaps not terribly new), about how the wealthiest Americans are paying out less of their income in taxes now than in years past.
Also of interest, for those [...]
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Interview with Alex Costakis of HSX
July 14th, 2009 · 3 Comments · Interviews, Prediction Markets
For those that follow prediction markets, the Hollywood Stock Exchange (HSX) is instantly recognized as one of the oldest and most popular on the internet. But despite their past success they have not stood still. In this interview with Alex Costakis, Managing Director of Hollywood Stock Exchange, we discuss the recent redesign, the [...]
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Information completeness is the key to efficient (prediction) markets
June 9th, 2009 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
From the Toronto Prediction Market Blog we have this nice post — The Forgotten Principle Behind Prediction Markets — which talks about the concept of information completeness being key to a successful prediction market
Each of Surowiecki’s prediction market conditions (diversity, independence and decentralization) relates to this overarching principle and serve to improve the pool of [...]
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Quirky … an ideas market with real money
June 4th, 2009 · No Comments · Prediction Markets, Product Development
Fast Company recently reviewed a company called Quirky (Quirky: A Crowd-Sourced Way to Produce Your Designs). Quirky is not unlike some of the idea markets I’ve spoken about previously on UM.
The difference this time is that Quirky has presumably figured out a way to help market participants actually earn real money. If you [...]
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Ouch! Red pins hurt! (And sometimes contain no useful information)
April 27th, 2009 · 2 Comments · Fun, Healthcare Markets, Information Design, Prediction Markets
Navigate to the latest prediction market, a “health market” this time, from the Iowa Electronic Market, and one see this:
Ouch! Oh, wait. The text lamely explains the graphic. “Each marker represents a location containing current or former health market participants.”
Phew. Well, I’m happy to hear that. But now, what the [...]
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And, the poor little prediction market that got overshadowed
December 9th, 2008 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
From TechCrunch:AskMarkets Launches Prediction Market For Crunchbase. Who’s Going To The DeadPool?
Despite the TechCrunch connection, I suspect that predictionmarketologists will take a keener interest in the HSX news, since getting new real money prediction markets in the US has faced a tad bit of trouble over the last few years.
~alex
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Potential new site for real money betting …?
December 9th, 2008 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
Gamblers — I mean Prediction Market Enthusiasts — rejoice. It looks as if there will be a new prediction market that will allow real money betting, this time on the box office revenue of Hollywood movies. As Alex Costakis, Managing Director of the HSX explains in an email to the prediction market Google [...]
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Candidates race for the Oval Office … oh, wait, sorry, that’s *Ovum* Office
November 13th, 2008 · No Comments · Fun, Prediction Markets
Some things are just too ridiculous for words. They have to be experienced.
(those using Google Reader click through to the site to see the widget)
But was it as fun as sex!?!?
~alex
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