If anything one senses the return of an old problem that has been hinted at before (remember the “jobless recovery” for our last recession in 2001 that everyone talked about?), but is now assuredly back.
The main question is: what does that mean for the American economy? Here’s a clue.
Addendum: I remember reading yesterday (but I don’t remember where) that younger people are more optimistic about their job prospects than older people. One could surmise that if technology is part of the reason that people are getting laid off, and staying laid off, then younger people who tend to have more skills relating to technology (or at least be less afraid of it) will be less worried since they should have the skills to compete in this “new world.” Not so those troglodytes we call our parents.
My apologies to any readers out there who have been wondering where I’ve been for the past couple months. Call it a new job and an apartment renovation. Some things demand immediate attention.
Regardless, though, I hope you stick with me. There never seems to be a shortage of things to say regarding markets, design, and usability.
In the process of designing for traders there is one thing that UX people learn relatively quickly: the mouse is slow. Traders, especially professional ones, rely on keyboard shortcuts to rapidly move around an application and do the thing they’re being paid to do: trade (and hopefully make a profit). The mouse in this environment is not, shall we say, the enemy, but the less you force the trader to use the mouse the better.
Of course consumer websites and applications are somewhat different. Having mouse actions alone for some types of functionality is not so bad. Generally there are not so many clicks as to be onerous. But there is a lesson for us all in the applications designed for traders: too much use of the mouse may not always be a good thing.
I had this (very small) insight when using a new site called Kapitall. It is an interesting idea: Investing made simple. But since when did simple mean almost complete reliance on the mouse? It appears as if almost nothing can be done on Kapitall without using the mouse. Getting a quote, making a watch list, anything. It doesn’t help that the desktop is transformed into a landscape which one has to maneuver (and scroll) through to find different groups of stock.
Imagine trying to manage 100 companies this way. Or even 25.
Don’t get me wrong. In many ways the idea is fascinating: using space and visible objects as a way to organize your investing related ideas, companies, etc. But perhaps the message here is: don’t make me work too hard to do what you want me to do. And, if I’m doing a lot of mouse action, I’m working too hard. (Especially if I’m an older investor and have carpel tunnel syndrome. Not necessarily unusual.)
Now, if only I had a quarter for everyone who tried to make investing simple.
The prediction markets for the Nobel Prize in Economics were not very predictive. The markets at InTrade were only open from Oct 9th to today, and do not appear to have generated a lot of volume … or any for that matter.
In addition, the winners were not even on the list of contracts you could have purchased. To win, you would have had to purchase contracts in “Other.”
What did Ostrom and Williamson study? Certainly not efficient markets!
In truth, given the biases (perhaps exposed in the Obama peace prize) it would have been a stretch for them to award anyone who studied (much less championed) free markets.
The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences cited Ostrom “for her analysis of economic governance,” saying her work had demonstrated how common property can be successfully managed by groups using it.
Williamson, the academy said, developed a theory where business firms serve as structures for conflict resolution.
Certainly not the type of stuff that makes Wall Streeters salivate onto their ties.
It appears there are not one, but three companies involved in the management of risk in the movie industry via markets. The FT has a nice piece on Veriana, the latest entrant. HSX (via Cantor Fitzgerald) and Icap are the others.
While these markets have yet to start running (and reducing risk), they do seem to be in the mold of the types of markets that Robert Shiller suggests, which manage the risk of such things as changes in housing prices or changing careers.
While managing risk in the movie business may not be a great social need, it is good to see these alternative markets being created. Better management of risk means more entrepreneurial activity. So, can we can expect a more eclectic set of movies to be produced in the future?
Looked at in that way, financial assets are not “wealth” but a claim on real wealth. If those claims multiply or rise in price, that does not mean aggregate wealth has increased. If a pizza is cut into eight instead of four slices, there is no more food to eat. If everyone sitting at the table is given shares in the pizza and the share price rises from $1 to $2, the meal will still be no bigger.
In short, wealth is a claim on future assets. Investing is a bet that those assets will grow, or are perceived by others to be less than they will be.
“We’re seeing a disproportionate number of users driving consumption [of the wireless spectrum],” Ralph de la Vega, AT&T Mobility president, said at the conference.
“If we don’t find a way to keep them from crowding out others, we’re going to have a very significant issue.”
Mr de la Vega said the top 3 per cent of its smartphone customers were responsible for 40 per cent of data usage, consuming 13 times more than the average smartphone user. With new smartphones that have software from Google and others coming, and the prospects of wider distribution of broadband-enabled notebook PCs, the demands for connectivity will continue to jump geometrically.
In other words, fairly soon the government is going to have to make some hard decisions about how the spectrum should be allocated. I wonder if this will lead to more expensive data plans, which are already fairly expensive (at least to me).
A recent article from the FT highlights Microsoft’s regret, at least concerning their mobile phone OS, they didn’t focus on the user experience of the dang thing sooner.
Microsoft executives blame their focus on the business market for their failure to relate earlier to the more intuitive interfaces and wave of consumer applications that have transformed the smartphone business.
“Our experiences aren’t as rich as they need to be,” Robbie Bach, head of the company’s entertainment and devices division, admitted recently.
He also faulted Microsoft’s mobile business for weak management and for failing to work closely enough with hardware makers to create compelling handsets.
So essentially the argument is: business applications really don’t need good user experience, unlike consumer focused applications (because we’ll get their bosses to force them to use them). And, oh yeah, we fucked up.
For that attitude, Microsoft, people from the world of work will not thank you.
Despite how you may feel about the usability of Apple applications and products, and the blind ridiculousness of Apple fan boys (and the mock turtleneck that leads them), you have to appreciate Apple for being one of the first companies to really make user experience a focal point of their products and marketing.
Dear simple, no button, black turtleneck, we heart you
Nadex is a sort of derivatives market with a play money side. This is how the alerting mechanism works for price changes.
In an acronym: WTF?
A couple UI points:
This may seem very cool, but it’s almost impossible to tell what’s going on here. The highlighted price is almost impossible to pair with the name of the contract
With multiple and rapid highlighting happening here, we have a Christmas tree effect, where the eye is being pulled in multiple directions. Fun to watch from the perspective of watching patterns form, but almost impossible to be actionable.
UsableMarkets explores and discusses all sorts of online markets, trading applications, information design, and economic topics. We also publish the occasional interview with UX practitioners and industry experts.
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