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Worth quoting: Inequality caused the recession

July 12th, 2010 · Economics

Raghuram Rajan, my new favorite economist, has an interesting piece on the Project Syndicate website, How Inequality Fueled the Crisis.

The crisis in the title of course refers to our recent recession. But then the crisis we’re in can perhaps be perceived as something more long lasting. At UM we’ve talked about the income gap before, which is where Rajan begins.

Since the 1970’s, wages for workers at the 90th percentile of the wage distribution in the US –such as office managers – have grown much faster than wages for the median worker (at the 50th percentile), such as factory workers and office assistants. A number of factors are responsible for the growth in the 90/50 differential.

Perhaps the most important is that technological progress in the US requires the labor force to have ever greater skills. A high school diploma was sufficient for office workers 40 years ago, whereas an undergraduate degree is barely sufficient today. But the education system has been unable to provide enough of the labor force with the necessary education. The reasons range from indifferent nutrition, socialization, and early-childhood learning to dysfunctional primary and secondary schools that leave too many Americans unprepared for college.

The everyday consequence for the middle class is a stagnant paycheck and growing job insecurity.

Rajan also asserts that this equality is not something that people (read politicians) don’t know about. It’s just something they won’t talk about.

Cynical as it might seem, easy credit has been used throughout history as a palliative by governments that are unable to address the deeper anxieties of the middle class directly.

Politicians, however, prefer to couch the objective in more uplifting and persuasive terms than that of crassly increasing consumption. In the US, the expansion of home ownership – a key element of the American dream – to low- and middle-income households was the defensible linchpin for the broader aims of expanding credit and consumption.

Which has led to the result we’re all to familiar with.

The problem, as often is the case with government policies, was not intent. It rarely is. But when lots of easy money pushed by a deep-pocketed government comes into contact with the profit motive of a sophisticated, competitive, and amoral financial sector, matters get taken far beyond the government’s intent.

So, does someone need to break our current education system and put it back together?

~alex

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NYTimes charting overkill

July 10th, 2010 · Fun, Information Design

The NYTimes has rightfully been making a name for itself in the world of infographics. Many of their economic and sporting graphs have been sublime. But have they gone overboard?

I only ask because this chart which is supposed to outline how the European teams started the World Cup poorly, but have now come on in the end, seems to me a bit gratuitous.

nytimes world cup graphic

While pretty, the chart seems more like a bunch of collected statistics, thrown together, which doesn’t really do much to support the main assertion. Using the small multiples to chart each game in the tournament can be endlessly distracting, but where does it lead us?

To avoid being just negative, though, I should point out that the NYTimes live graphical updates during the World Cup games has been quite powerful. One does get an excellent sense of how a game is progressing (especially if one does not have the benefit of a video feed or TV), in a very small amount of space.

nytimes game graphic

~alex

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US Monthly (Annualized) Car Sales Data, 1996 to present

July 7th, 2010 · Information Design, Travel Markets

car sales data

click to SUV-ize

Source, California State’s Department of Finance

~alex

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An ugly graph but a powerful message

July 7th, 2010 · Economics, Information Design

nytimes image

From the NYTImes, Economix.

The chart title — Percent change of constant-dollar median usual weekly earnings by educational attainment and sex — is a mouthful, but the message is simple:
1. Men without a 4 year college degree likely earn less than their fathers
2. Men with a 4 year college degree likely earn more
3. Women are likely earning more than their mothers, regardless of education (except for the most poorly educated)

To wit: get yourself edumacated.

~alex

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TED Spread vs. US bank failures, 2000 to present

June 28th, 2010 · Economics, Information Design

ted vs bank failures, 2000 to present

The TED spread is the difference between the interbank loan rates and the short term treasury rates (3 month LIBOR – 90 day Treasuries). The higher the spread, the less faith there is in the strength of the banks.

~alex

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What’s a big ass chart to do?

June 23rd, 2010 · Information Design

Or: Does data-to-ink ratio mean anything to you?

I recently came across this rather large infographic illustrating how much Americans spend on their cars (initially posted on Bundle). It got a rather soft review in Flowing Data, but my sense is that it should come in for a bit harsher treatment (like maybe with a polo mallet?).

Here are three views of the graphic:

The whole thing.
us avg car spend
click for larger image

A little closer.
us avg car spend

When the text finally becomes readable.
us avg car spend

There are many things one can say (like “why is the type so friggen’ small?”), but mainly this chart is working too hard to impress. Or, in other words: not enough data and too much ink. Something like this would have been much more effective (if not so flashy) on a smaller scale, and as a bar chart. For example:

Average annual vehicle expenses per household, by state*
us average car spend chart improved

So, what’s a big ass chart to do? Why that’s easy. Get small(er), and use less ink.

*I recognize that I’m not using the exact data set, and states instead of cities, but the principle is the same.

~alex

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French retirement

June 22nd, 2010 · Economics, Information Design

It is considered a right in most industrialized countries: a longish (hopefully peaceful) retirement after your many years of service to society as a taxpayer and worker. And yet our long, peaceful retirements have a cost. And the longer (and more peaceful?), the costlier … as the French are finding out. (WSJ, subscription required.)

The first three charts show the relative length of a French retiree’s retirement as compared with selected other countries. The last illustrates part of the problem the French face: since the 1950′s the average life span of the French is about 15 years longer.

wsj-image

This chart from the NYTimes illustrates the same problem, but from another point of view. Instead of looking how long people are living, it looks at the number of working people per retired person.

workers per retiree

From this perspective, many other countries are in the same boat as the French.

~alex

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Global energy stock screener

June 20th, 2010 · Information Design, Product Development

I’ve been working with Tableau Public again. It takes a while to get the hang of it, but once you do it’s fairly easy to start constructing some interesting charts. Here, for example, is my quick take at a stock screener.

energy stock screener

Click the image for the larger, fully functioning chart.

The speed of the Tableau servers leaves something to be desired, but it is free I suppose, and, as they say, beggars can’t be choosers.

While I’m proud of my mini-construction, it’s still not nearly as elegant as the Google stock screener, although I’ve added a simple scatter plot as a way to find companies where two important variables (in this case P/E and book value) intersect.

~alex

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Betting real money on movie success (or failure) is one step closer

June 16th, 2010 · Prediction Markets

From the FT we learn that the Commodity Futures Trading Commission has given the go ahead to exchanges (such as the Hollywood Stock Exchange and The Trend Exchange) where derivatives based on movie box office receipts can be traded.

An editorial from the FT backs up the CFTC’s decision, arguing this should enable the film industry to take more risks and, as a results, we should get a better selection of more diverse films. From the editorial:

Yet in treating films as commodities, the CFTC is preventing movies becoming even more commoditised than they are now. Difficult economic conditions make film financing tougher. Without new ways to offset the costs of a box office wipeout, the danger is that the only movies to get made will be those that studios are confident will be sure-fire hits. This would be fine for those content with a diet of endless instalments of popular franchises – imagine Twilight: Yet Another Lunar Event, say – but less good for those who prefer greater variety.

As someone who would like to greater variety of interesting films, I can only hope this is indeed the result. In theory, it should work. Simply put, if you allow people (in this case movie makers) to hedge away the risk of a venture, then they’ll be more likely to take this risk … and potentially make the great movie that otherwise would not have been made.

Extend this concept to other areas of life (as Robert Shiller has in The New Financial Order: Risk in the 21st Century), and you see how derivatives could protect people against the pitfalls of taking risks — such as going back to school, or attempting to be a concert violinist — and therefore help create more beauty, innovation and personal satisfaction in the world.

When can I short this?
ghost-rider

~alex

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Charting population migration within the US

June 16th, 2010 · Information Design

Forbes maps an interesting data series: population migration in the US. Using the interactive map one can focus on a county and see where migrants are coming from, and going to.

With a bit of visual detective work we can construct possible migration patterns.

People move to New York City from all over, but mainly retire to Florida.
pop-ny

Most people going to LA come from the northeast, and then spread out along either the sunbelt or the northwest coast.
pop-la

People move to Seattle mainly from the midwest and northern California, and then stay.
pop-seattle

But there are some major problems with this chart.

1. The profusion of lines for high turnover counties can obscure the data. This is particularly true as the lines get closer to the target county and converge.

2. The weight of the lines are too similar (and often obscured), to get any accurate sense of the patterns other than at the highest (and perhaps most misleading) level.

3. It’s quite hard to tease out what are major patterns for the big US cities. One could address this by listing the top ten places people are coming from, and going to, for these cities. Or aggregate the data at the state level. Either way would help readers of the chart better understand it.

It is worthwhile to note, though, that the chart works well for counties without much migration. Then the data is easy to explore and is allowed to be illuminating.

Cayuga County, NY.
pop-cayuga

~alex

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