The price of something traded on a market is supposed to reflect all available information about that something … at least in efficient markets. I’m not an economist, but it’s not a difficult concept to grasp. So why is it, then, that “prediction markets” about the stock market seem to be so popular?
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Entries Tagged as 'Predict Wall Street'
When Prediction Markets Go Bad
April 2nd, 2007 · 2 Comments · Prediction Markets
Sky Captains of TomorrowMeter, (Predict Wall Street, Part 4)
December 31st, 2006 · No Comments · Information Design, Prediction Markets
There is one sure thing to love about Predict Wall Street – that they never stop trying. A new feature on the home page continues to make me applaud them.
TomorrowMeter (a trademarked term) is a handy little tool that requires that you make three predictions for three separate stocks or indices, and then it [...]
Predict Wall Street, Part 3
October 10th, 2006 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
My love of Predict Wall Street continues unabated. The latest gem comes from their home page, of all places, and concerns the following chart.
The sentence itself seems reasonable enough: x percent of people predict something about tomorrow. Great stuff, really, but the problem then happens when one looks at the associated chart.
The chart apparently [...]
Tags:Predict Wall Street
The Motley Fool Puts on its Prediction Market CAPS
October 2nd, 2006 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
The Business 2.0 blog recently had a post about the latest prediction market, this one from The Motley Fool called CAPS.
CAPS is very similar to Predict Wall Street. Traders can pick a stock and picks can be made over varying lengths of time. On CAPS, the more accurate you are as a picker, [...]
Tags:Predict Wall Street
PicksPal Discovers that Some People Are Lucky
September 24th, 2006 · No Comments · Prediction Markets
Recently TechCrunch wrote a nice post about a company called PicksPal. PicksPal, a sports prediction market, has apparently discovered that some people can pick winners of sporting events more frequently than other people. And PicksPal has decided to make a nice business out of this by selling picks from top pickers (the picks [...]
Tags:Predict Wall Street·sports prediction market·sports world·USD·Wall Street
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